I just got back from San Francisco attending the Institute for the Future's "Ten Year Forecast" where I got to talk about a model I did which they used in a piece called "Open Scale."The basic idea is that social mechanisms enabled by collaborative technologies allow open groups to leverage the advantages of large-scale organization. These advantages are just not available to closed groups. My original bit was called "The Success of Openness" and ends by making the point that if "openness" as a strategy is more successful, then the political, economic, and social landscapes will trend towards more openness as a whole regardless of whether existing organizations adopt openness or are replaced by new open organizations.

http://www.panarchy.com/Members/PaulBHartzog/Papers/TYF_06%20econ%20open...